The NBA Finals are here and the marquee matchup all of the experts predicted did not materialize. For my part, I tried to go against the grain but not only did I pick the wrong favorite, I picked the wrong underdog as well. Predicting a winner doesn’t get any easier from here. The Lakers are favored to win the Finals with homecourt advantage, but the Magic were 2-0 against them in the regular season and have consistently shown that it’s a bad idea to bet against them in this 2009 postseason.
The Lakers have looked strong, particularly in their Game 6 shellacking of the hapless Denver Nuggets last week and as an organization they appear to be focused on redeeming themselves after losing to the Celtics in the 2008 NBA Finals. Kobe Bryant is at the top of his game, and he averaged 34 points per game against the Orlando Magic this season. Andrew Bynum will present a key matchup defending against Dwight Howard in this series. If Bynum falters against Howard, as he did during the regular season, look for the Lakers to rely on Gasol to pick up the slack.
The Lakers bench is deep and extremely talented featuring many threats that are able to come in and score with efficiency. Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar and Luke Walton can all generate consistent points off the bench and overall I would give the edge to the Lakers in this category. If Bynum gets into foul trouble on Howard, Gasol will likely pick up the slack and Lamar Odom will come off the bench to defend against the dangerous Hedo Turkoglu.
The Orlando Magic present a very perplexing matchup for any opponent, as they will repeatedly burn you with prolific and highly efficient 3 point shooting if you double their
workhorse, all-star and 2009 Defensive Player of the Year, center Dwight Howard. If you play them one-on-one in an attempt to control their perimeter shooters, they will devastate you by repeatedly going to Howard in the paint.
Although the Orlando bench gives away a bit of an advantage to the Lakers, Mickael Pietrus is a versatile and dangerous role player who can both score and defend with equal efficiency. Just ask the Cavaliers, whose bench was singlehandedly outscored by Pietrus in the Eastern Conference Finals. Watch for Pietrus to play a key role in defending against Kobe Bryant off the bench and to put in a lot of minutes for the Magic. There is also serious speculation that all-star point guard Jameer Nelson could be available for the series as well.
There are several X-factors to watch for in this series. For the Lakers it will be essential that Kobe continue to play unselfishly and involve his teammates rather than try to do it all on his own. Derek Fisher will need to elevate his game in this series to give the Lakers the edge they need, as he has been ineffective and inconsistent this postseason.
For Orlando they will need to watch the “just happy to be here” mentality and not assume that their perfect record against the Lakers this season will translate into easy wins in the Finals. Another thing that Orlando will need to monitor carefully is the frustration level of Dwight Howard. In the Sixers series he was suspended in Game 6 for intentionally throwing what was essentially a punch with his elbow on Samuel Dalembert and he was fortunate that he did not connect with one he threw at Wally Szczerbiak in the Conference Finals last week. Judging by the calls he has had against him, it is safe to assume that the refs will be giving no quarter for these thuggish tactics. He will also have to continue his uncharacteristic proficiency with free-throw shooting, as the Lakers will certainly be hacking him in the paint.
There are currently no comments highlighted.
