Well, the NBA Conference Finals are here, which means the NBA Finals are just around the corner. The big question is, which of the remaining four teams will have the grit to finish the final round and hoist the 2009 Larry O’Brien Trophy? While I’m sure you might want to hear an echo of what the major media outlets are hyping — a LeBron vs. Kobe finals epic for the ages – don’t hold your breath.
That scenario is half-right at least. Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers will indeed be in the finals and they’ll win it too. I’m going to tell you why. But first let me tell you why Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers will not make the finals.
I know a lot has been made by the media of the Lakers relative struggle to eventually beat Houston last week and in theory I agree with some of that criticism. However, the main reason I think the Lakers will be upset in the Western Conference Finals is that the Denver Nuggets are a tough, determined defensive team that is playing consistently dominant team basketball and
the Lakers are not. You could argue that the Nuggets just played a team in the Dallas Mavericks that couldn’t stand up to the physicality of their opponent and have had a history of wilting in the face of a strong physical team such as Denver. Fair enough.
But while that description of the Dallas Mavericks doesn’t necessarily describe the L.A. Lakers, it doesn’t bode well for them either. Denver will match up against the Lakers much like the Boston Celtics matched up against them in the 2007-2008 NBA Finals last year, with the same result. I’d go so far as to say Denver in 6 games, just as it was with the Celtics last season. The Lakers are not a weak team physically, it’s just that they tend to be more of a finesse team than a grinding physical team such as the Nuggets. I think this matchup will go in the Nuggets favor.
As for the Eastern Conference Finals, I don’t see the Orlando Magic beating the Cavaliers. I know what the history is between the two teams and I know it appears that Orlando would have a clear advantage in this series. They won the 2008-2009 regular season series over the Cavs 2-1 and are up 8-3 over the Cavaliers in their last 11 meetings, with the most recent win being a 29 point beat down in Orlando just last month. No doubt, they match up very well against the Cavaliers. The X-factor that also swings into Orlando’s favor is that they have a better bench than Cleveland.
These are compelling arguments for an Orlando win. However, one has to consider a number of facts when trying to deal Lebron James 
and the Cleveland Cavaliers out of the post season. One of the main points to consider is the simple fact that the Cavaliers have been on fire since the post season began. They had stretches in the regular season during which they were simply unbeatable and, relatively weak opponents in Detroit and Atlanta aside, they look unbeatable now. The fact that the starters are well rested means the bench factor will not be as significant as some would like to believe, as the starters should be able to put in a lot of minutes.
That said, it is time to put to bed another of the Cinderella stories the media is putting the hype on; a perfect post-season by the Cavaliers. I don’t see them sweeping either Orlando or Denver but I will stand by my prediction. Lebron James is the league MVP and deservedly so, but he has actually played better since winning the honor. You can cite the history that only one of the five previous tandems of Coach of the Year and MVP winners went on to win an NBA title but the Cavaliers have been knocking on the door for years and they finally have the pieces in place around their MVP to get the job done. The Cavaliers will beat the Orlando Magic in 6 games and go on to win the NBA Championship series in a climactic game 7 in Cleveland.
BeatBookies pick : Cleveland to win
Odds: 1.80
Bookie: Betfair
Do you disagree, post a comment!
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Okay… your missing way too many points here. First off, Orlando is a much better team than the Cavaliers. Yes, Orlando Magic is a much better team than the Cleveland Cavaliers. I disagree with you thinking that Lebron and the Cavs are going to own them, but I am not necessarily disagreeing with your results. The issue with Orlando is that they trust their outside shot way too much. If they can maintain a balance between outside and Howard, they can put up a well-contested fight and they might even win! As far as the buckets… I mean nuggets and Lakers… who are the nuggets? Are they a new franchise or something? Though talented, I doubt they will be able to beat an experienced team like the Lakers (Hence why they lost game 1). Regardless, if I am right and Lakers do make it to the finals to play the cavs, I will say one thing. 4-0 for LA!
Thanks for the input. Of course the marquee matchup of Lebron and Kobe is certainly a possibility and to be honest, I’d personally love to see just that in the finals. It’d be thrilling to watch this year’s MVP go up against last year’s MVP, without a doubt the two most exciting players in all of basketball, in a modern classic, finals showdown. That said, I have to express serious doubt that the Lakers, or anyone for that matter, could sweep this season’s Cavs in a seven game series. This Cavs team is nothing like the Cavs teams of recent memory. I don’t see a team in the league who could even dream of sweeping this team, but of course that’s why they play the games. We’ll have to wait and see how it all rolls out.
As for the Nuggets, a disappointing Game 1 aside, I still think this Denver team could pull off the upset. They played 46 minutes of superb basketball last night but ultimately couldn’t seal the deal. I will certainly give credit where credit is due, Los Angeles finished the game with classic Laker poise, once again proving the old adage, “It’s not how you start but how you finish”, to be so very true, especially when playing against the Lakers. If they can live up to that ideal throughout the series, the Lakers will win. But I’m still feeling a Nugget’s upset in the making, not only in spite of Game 1, but because of it. That game was there for the taking and Denver knows it. Expect that to be reflected in their level of play as the series progresses. Of course, feel free to come back and rub it in if I end up being wrong!
Happy Punting,
Christopher S. Brown