Value bets are considered by some to be the “Holy Grail” of online betting. If you know what you’re doing, a good value bet can offer a phenomenal return on a winning wager. You can make many times your original stake by winning a good value bet, but you need to be intimately familiar with the model before you risk your cash. So before we get into the benefits of value betting and strategies to help you prosper with the bookies, let’s define a value bet and look at the elements that make a value bet truly valuable.
Obviously, a value bet is a wager that has been deemed to be of potentially high value to a prospective punter, but how is that value determined? The term value, as defined in value betting, is a mathematical equation used in calculating the overall quality of various odds. The sole elements in this mathematical equation are the odds themselves and the probability of a specific outcome, rendered as a numerical percentage, on a particular event. The easiest way to illustrate this would be with the use of the following example.
Calculating Value
Let’s say you get 5.00 odds for Portsmouth on a match between Chelsea and Portsmouth and the probability of a Portsmouth win is 30%. This would create a value odd for taking Portsmouth to win with the payout being dictated by the following mathematical equation: 5.00 x 30 = 1.50 Value. Any bet over 1.0 is considered a value bet, hence our 1.50 is definitely a value bet. In practice this bet would net you 15 times your stake on a win, so it’s pretty easy to see the appeal in this type of bet.
One important factor to consider when approaching a value bet is what kind of action you are looking for with the wager. By nature of the formula above, value odds with different probabilities will ultimately determine different value bets. For instance, if you want to play a real longshot for high winnings, you would want to go with high odds and low probabilities, while the inverse would be true if you were looking for a safer bet, meaning low odds with high probabilities.
There are many other important considerations to take into account when evaluating the true worth of a value bet. In some matches, determining the viability of a bet can be more than just a matter of a favorite and a longshot. If the longshot is a true dog, it may be better to stay away from them, even on an attractive value bet.
Conversely, if the favorite in the match is a very popular and heavily favored team, this too can present some challenges when judging the merit of a value bet. Frequently when a heavily favored and popular team is involved in a match, that match will draw more bets, causing the bookies to shorten the odds in order to compensate for strong betting on the favorite. This results in the perception of a disparity that is actually much less than it seems, as it is more a product of the shortened odds on the favorite rather than longer odds on the underdog, ultimately creating a distorted sense of value.
In the end, perhaps the best advice you can have when pursuing value bets is to be patient and keep from being impulsive with the bets you decide to consider. You want to avoid rushing into a perceived value bet without first doing your homework. For example if you come across a value bet with an unusually high true value multiple, don’t get stars in your eyes imagining your huge winnings without at least verifying important details such as whether the handicapping system used to calculate your fantastic value bet is the same as the other bookies that are offering value bets on the event. Of course, the very best way to make the most of a value bet is to utilize the services of a professional odds comparison website such as BeatBookies before placing your bet so you can be completely sure of what you’re dealing with.
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